This collaboration between NZSA and University of Canterbury (UC) Business School is part of our mission to promote a thriving market and to be the voice of investors. A sentiment index will contribute to the understanding of investor behaviour and the overall market and allow you to get first access to the data and make better-informed investment decisions.
Have your say!
Each week, a random selection of NZSA members are sent an email to complete the survey. If you wish to participate in the NZ Investor Sentiment Index Survey anyway, you can click on this link anytime – also contained in each Briefing newsletter. The sentiment survey is conducted weekly from Thursday 12:01am to Wednesday 11:45pm.
This Week’s Results:
This week’s commentary – October 1st, 2026
New Zealand stock market sentiment
Neutral sentiment and bearish sentiment decreased, while bullish sentiment increased, leaving bullish responses as the largest group.
- Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 46.4 percentage points to 75.0%.
- Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will essentially stay unchanged over the next six months, decreased by 16.1 percentage points to 12.5%.
- Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased by 30.4 percentage points to 12.5%.
New Zealand sector level sentiment
At the sector level, bullish sentiment increased in five of eight sectors and decreased in three of eight sectors. Neutral sentiment increased in four of eight sectors and decreased in four of eight sectors. Bearish sentiment increased in one of eight sectors and decreased in seven of eight sectors.
- The level of optimism among individual investors is highest for primary sector and IT (both at 62.5%), followed by industrials and health care (both at 50.0%) and consumer discretionary and financials (both at 25.0%). The level of optimism is lowest for energy and real estate (both at 12.5%), followed by consumer discretionary and financials (both at 25.0%) and industrials and health care (both at 50.0%).
- The level of neutral sentiment is highest for financials (75.0%), followed by energy and real estate (both at 62.5%) and consumer discretionary (50.0%). Neutral sentiment is lowest for primary sector and IT (both at 25.0%), followed by industrials and health care (both at 37.5%) and consumer discretionary (50.0%).
- The level of pessimism is highest for energy, consumer discretionary, and real estate (all at 25.0%), followed by primary sector, industrials, health care, and IT (all at 12.5%) and financials (0.0%). Pessimism is lowest for financials (0.0%), followed by primary sector, industrials, health care, and IT (all at 12.5%) and energy, consumer discretionary, and real estate (all at 25.0%).
International sentiment
For Australian stocks, bearish sentiment decreased, while bullish sentiment and neutral sentiment increased. For U.S. stocks, bullish sentiment and bearish sentiment decreased, while neutral sentiment increased. The two markets diverged in at least one sentiment category.
- Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 23.2 percentage points to 37.5% for Australian stocks and decreased by 3.6 percentage points to 25.0% for U.S. stocks.
- Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay flat over the next six months, increased by 21.4 percentage points to 50.0% for Australian stocks and increased by 8.9 percentage points to 37.5% for U.S. stocks.
- Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased by 44.6 percentage points to 12.5% for Australian stocks and decreased by 5.4 percentage points to 37.5% for U.S. stocks.
New Zealand personal investment sentiment
If investors were to purchase equity, the proportions of investors planning to increase their investment in large cap shares and funds, and anticipating no change in their equity allocation increased compared to last week. Conversely, the proportions of investors planning to increase their investment in small cap shares and expressing uncertainty about their equity allocation decreased compared to last week.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their small cap shares decreased by 16.7 percentage points to 0.0% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their large cap shares increased by 12.5 percentage points to 12.5% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their funds increased by 12.5 percentage points to 62.5% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating no change in their equity allocation increased by 8.3 percentage points to 25.0% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors who express uncertainty about their equity allocation decreased by 16.7 percentage points to 0.0% this week if they were to purchase equity.
Historic Data
There have been wide variations since the survey began (January 2020) in Investor Sentiment. The following chart shows:
- the lowest recorded response for each type of sentiment (the lower ‘whisker’)
- the recorded responses between 25th – 75th percentile (the ‘box’)
- the median response score – ie, exactly 50% of scores are above and below this number
- the maximum response (excluding ‘outliers’)
- Interestingly, NZ Investors have displayed a greater tendency towards expressing “negative” (bearish) sentiment since the survey’s inception.